For nearly four decades, Mike Battaglia has made the morning line for Churchill Downs — including the Kentucky Derby, which oddsmakers agree is the toughest race in the nation to predict.
“It's all the ingredients that make making odds difficult all wrapped into one,” said Frank Carulli, who makes the line for the Preakness Stakes, the middle leg of racing's Triple Crown.
Those ingredients include big fields, young horses at “a new, unconquered distance” coming from different tracks and different racing surfaces — and several million unpredictable bettors, he said.The morning line represents the preliminary odds that will be printed in the race-day program, meant to give fans an idea of expected payoffs for the winning horses. As with all pari-mutuel wagering, the actual odds are determined by the betting.
“It's my opinion of what other people's opinions are going to be” and not necessarily what he thinks the odds should be, Battaglia said. “I have to get into the head of the bettor.
He did that pretty well in 1975, his first year at making the Derby morning line, when he made Foolish Pleasure the favorite at 9-5 odds. The horse won and paid $5.80, which shows on the tote board as 9-5, although it's actually slightly higher odds. (That pick also won him a bet with the late sports-gambling personality Jimmy “The Greek” Snyder, who thought the horse would go off at a higher price.)Asked whether his job has gotten easier or harder over the years, Battaglia joked that it's obviously become harder — “because the first one, I got exactly right.”
Now considered one of Kentucky racing's most iconic personalities and American racing's best-known linemaker, Battaglia was, until recently, at Churchill every race day, commuting 100 miles each way from his Edgewood, Ky., home.
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