Can Ron Paul convert enthusiasm into votes in 2012?

When Texas congressman Ron Paul announces his presidential exploratory committee later today, it will inevitably spark a discussion about whether the Republican will be able to convert his enthusiastic support into votes in the 2012 primaries.
Paul previously has run twice for president: In 1988, as the Libertarian Party nominee, and then in 2008 for the GOP nomination eventually won by Arizona Sen. John McCain.
The last time around, Paul won 24 delegates during the primaries and finished a distant fourth to McCain (behind Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee) in the count, according to an Associated Press tally.
Paul set fundraising records with his ability to bring in big bucks through the Internet, something that President Obama also did in the 2008 race. At one point, Paul even joked he had so much money coming in, he was trying to figure out how to spend it all.
In February, for the second year in a row, Paul won the straw poll at the Conservative Political Action Conference of GOP activists. He beat out former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who is leading recent presidential polls by McClatchy Newspapers, NBC/Wall Street Journal and Pew Research Center.
Speaking of polls, Paul generally falls somewhere in the middle of the pack. In the latest Gallup Poll, the Texas congressman tied with Newt Gingrich with 6% support from Republicans -- better than Tea Party favorite Michele Bachmann, with 4%.
And when it comes to the issues that drive a campaign, Paul has advocated less federal spending and reducing the debt in his 12 years in Congress. He has been outspoken in recent months about U.S. involvement abroad, especially in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya.
Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University in Dallas, says more people will listen to Paul these days because of his stance on fiscal issues. But Paul's would need help from socially conservative voters in early presidential nominating states such as Iowa and South Carolina if he's going to do better than he did in 2008.
"He is a second-tier candidate," Jillson says. "He's more in the middle of the debate than he has traditionally been, but he's still an outlier in the Republican Party."

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